A reminder that political crises carry high stakes in Northern Ireland

With less than six months of restored power-sharing in Northern Ireland, last week the executive looked under threat of collapse again. The deputy first minister, Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill, faced calls to resign after claims that she broke the lockdown restrictions by attending the funeral of prominent republican Bobby Storey. O’Neill resisted calls for her to step aside and apologised for “grieving families experiencing more hurt”, but claims that her actions were in line with social distancing restrictions.

Stories of senior government figures breaking lockdown rules are far from unique to Northern Ireland. But Northern Ireland’s governance arrangements are unique – and this kind of political crisis poses a threat not just to individual careers but to the stability of the whole government.

Power-sharing makes navigating political crises even more difficult

Northern Ireland’s governance arrangements require representatives of the largest nationalist and unionist parties to occupy the top two positions of first minister and deputy first minister. If either resigns without appointing a successor, all ministers will cease to hold office and the executive is shut down.  

Reforms to allow ministers to stay in position, albeit with more limited decision making power, in the event of such a collapse were agreed as part of the deal that restored power sharing in January this year. However, these have not yet been implemented, so a breakdown in relations now would create the complete political vacuum that existed in Northern Ireland for the 1,000 days between 2017 and early 2020.

Indeed, the current situation has echoes of 2017. Then, first minister Arlene Foster refused to heed calls for her own resignation amid the “cash-for-ash scandal”. In response, then-deputy first minister Martin McGuiness resigned in protest – bringing down the executive in the process. This had a serious and negative impact on Northern Ireland, from a decline in public services to its voice being largely absent from the Brexit debate that raged throughout 2019. In 2020, with the coronavirus crisis ongoing, the consequences of a lack of ministerial decision making could be much more severe.

The coronavirus crisis makes the threat of executive collapse more serious than ever

Were the executive to collapse now, the Northern Ireland Civil Service (NICS) would be left to run Northern Ireland (as it did in the previous three-year period). Unlike the other administrations in the UK, statutory power is vested in NI departments, rather than ministers, so civil servants would still be able to exercise certain functions like making secondary legislation. But civil servants cannot take political decisions.

Throughout the crisis, politicians have claimed they are simply “following the science”, but most of the big decisions – on school closures and the lockdown – have involved difficult political trade-offs between public health, the economy, human rights, and the impact on people’s lives. It would not be appropriate for officials to make these judgements.

The executive’s recently published “roadmap” for easing lockdown restrictions could provide the NICS with enough political cover to navigate the immediate future. But what if infections start to rise again: who could legitimately decide whether to (re)tighten restrictions? The same applies to important decisions on Northern Ireland’s economic recovery, as well as those on implementing the Northern Ireland protocol. Indecision in these areas could do significant damage to the economy, and potentially cost lives.

It might ultimately be necessary to enable UK ministers to take decisions in the absence of local ones, though doing so risks significant political and constitutional fallout. Such a situation must be avoided at all costs.

The executive has shown how well it can work recently – this progress should not be lost

A collapse at this point would be particularly regrettable as the last six months have demonstrated how well the executive can work.

Despite an early disagreement over the timing of a school closures, the first minister and deputy first minister have put on a united front to lead Northern Ireland in a time of crisis. The five-party Executive Committee was able to agree a comprehensive strategy for easing lockdown restrictions and make daily decisions, often paving the way for the other parts of the UK to follow. It has worked effectively with both the UK and the Irish governments, avoiding constitutional politics and making it clear that the priorities are to do what is best for the people of Northern Ireland.

Foster has made clear that she will not collapse the institutions, saying she would not “walk away from the government of Northern Ireland at a time when we are having severe challenges ahead of us”. This is a promising sign, and it looks like the institutions will survive – but the relationships between the parties in the executive have undoubtably been damaged. Without a proper resolution to this issue, there remains a risk that they could deteriorate further. 

Navigating a path out of the current impasse could be the greatest test the executive has faced – and an opportunity to demonstrate how far it’s come. The alternatives are grave. Another collapse would surely cast serious doubts over the future of devolution in Northern Ireland.